New Survey Methods

Surveys are widely used by scholars, companies, and public policymakers to generate invaluable insights. Despite the popularity of surveys, there are several biases that can affect the validity of self-reported data. In his inaugural address, Martijn de Jong discusses how new survey methods can help to extract valid information from surveys. Several examples are presented that showcase the relevance of better research design and careful statistical modeling of the response process. In addition, De Jong addresses some commonly held perceptions about the ability to make causal inferences with survey data

State-Dependence Effects in Surveys

In recent years academic research has focused on understanding and modeling the survey response process. This paper examines an understudied systematic response tendency in surveys: the extent to which observed responses are subject to state dependence, i.e., response carryover from one item to another independent of specific item content. We develop a statistical model that simultaneously accounts for state dependence, item content, and scale usage heterogeneity. The paper explores how state dependence varies by response category, item characteristics, item sequence, respondent characteristics, and whether it becomes stronger as the survey progresses. Two empirical applications provide evidence of substantial and significant state dependence. We find that the degree of state dependence depends on item characteristics and item sequence, and it varies across individuals and countries. The article demonstrates that ignoring state dependence may affect reliability and predictive validity, and it provides recommendations for survey researchers

Predicting Customer Lifetime Value in Multi-Service Industries

Customer lifetime value (CLV) is a key-metric within CRM. Although, a large number of marketing scientists and practitioners argue in favor of this metric, there are only a few studies that consider the predictive modeling of CLV. In this study we focus on the prediction of CLV in multi-service industries. In these industries customer behavior is rather complex, because customers can purchase more than one service, and these purchases are often not independent from each other. We compare the predictive performance of different models, which vary in complexity and realism. Our results show that for our application simple models assuming constant profits over time have the best predictive performance at the individual customer level. At the customer base level more c

The Effect of Customer Empowerment on Adherence to Expert Advice

Customers often receive expert advice related to their health, finances, taxes or legal procedures, to name just a few. A noble stance taken by some is that experts should empower customers to make their own decisions. In this article, we distinguish informational from decisional empowerment and study whether empowerment leads customers to adhere more or less to expert advice. We empirically test our model using a unique dataset involving 11,735 respondents in 17 countries on four continents. In the context of consumer adherence to doctors’ therapy advice (patient non-adherence to doctor advice may cost about $564 billion globally to the pharmaceutical industry every year), we find that decisional empowerment lowers adherence to expert advice. The effect of informational empowerment varies predictably across cultures and is only universally beneficial when initiated by the customer. These findings have important implications for professional service providers

Assessing Sensitive Consumer Behavior Using the Item Count Response Technique

The authors propose a new truth-telling technique and statistical model called “item count response technique” (ICRT) to assess the prevalence and drivers of sensitive consumer behavior. Monte Carlo simulations and a large-scale application to self-reported cigarette consumption among pregnant women (n ¼ 1,315) demonstrate the effectiveness of the procedure. The ICRT provides more valid and precise prevalence estimates and is more efficient than direct self-reports and previous item count techniques. It accomplishes this by (1) incentivizing participants to provide truthful answers, (2) accounting for procedural nonadherence and differential

Measuring Consumer Preferences Using Conjoint Poker

We develop and test an incentive-compatible Conjoint Poker (CP) game. The preference data collected in the context of this game are comparable to incentive-compatible choice-based conjoint (CBC) analysis data. We develop a statistical efficiency measure and an algorithm to construct efficient CP designs. We compare incentive-compatible CP to incentive-compatible CBC in a series of three experiments (one online study and two eye-tracking studies). Our results suggest that CP induces respondents to consider more of the profile-related information presented to them compared with CBC

Finite Mixture Multilevel Multidimensional Ordinal IRT Models for Large Scale Cross-Cultural Research

measurement equivalence, measurement invariance, mixture modeling, latent classes, differential item functioning, item response theory, hierarchical item response theory, multidimensional IRT, graded response model, cross-cultural research,

The Power of Flash Mob Research Conducting a Nationwide Observational Clinical Study on Capillary Refill Time in a Single Day

BACKGROUND: Capillary refill time (CRT) is a clinical test used to evaluate the circulatory status of patients; various methods are available to assess CRT. Conventional clinical research often demands large numbers of patients, making it costly, labor-intensive, and time-consuming. We studied the interobserver agreement on CRT in a nationwide study by using a novel method of research called flash mob research (FMR). METHODS: Physicians in the Netherlands were recruited by using word-of-mouth referrals, conventional media, and social media to participate in a nationwide, single-day, "nineto-five," multicenter, cross-sectional, observational study to evaluate CRT. Patients aged >= 18 years presenting to the ED or who were hospitalized were eligible for inclusion. CRT was measured independently (by two investigators) at the patient's sternum and distal phalanx after application of pressure for 5 s (5s) and 15 s (15s). RESULTS: On October 29, 2014, a total of 458 investigators in 38 Dutch hospitals enrolled 1,734 patients. The mean CRT measured at the distal phalanx were 2.3 s (5s, SD1.1) and 2.4 s (15s, SD1.3). The mean CRT measured at the sternum was 2.6 s (5s, SD1.1) and 2.7 s (15s, SD1.1). Interobserver agreement was higher for the distal phalanx (k value, 0.40) than for the sternum (k value, 0.30). CONCLUSIONS: Interobserver agreement on CRT is, at best, moderate. CRT measured at the distal phalanx yielded higher interobserver agreement compared with sternal CRT measurements. FMR proved a valuable instrument to investigate a relatively simple clinical question in an inexpensive, quick, and reliable manner